Persistent North Atlantic Oscillation Trumps Impacts of Strong La Nina Event, Suggesting Lower-than-Normal Temperatures
Andover, MA, October 25, 2010 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the approaching period (November-January) to average higher than normal in Scandinavia and the eastern half of the mainland and lower than normal in the UK and western Europe.
“As we head into the winter season, most of our important climate indicators are at or near record levels. A strong La Nina event is developing in the tropical Pacific with very cold ocean temperatures, while North Atlantic Ocean temperatures are as warm as they’ve been in the last 60 years. Further, and most importantly, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been unusually strong and persistent for much of the last 3 years, suggesting a return to weather patterns more like those in the 1950s and 1960s,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist, Dr. Todd Crawford. “While recent La Nina events have been associated with rather mild winters, they have not been accompanied by the negative NAO pattern. All of the La Nina events in the 1950s and 1960s were accompanied by the negative NAO pattern, and these were generally cold winters across much of Europe. Based on all of the available evidence, we expect another winter with below-normal temperatures across the UK and the western half of the mainland, although not nearly as severe as last winter. Further, we expect the coldest weather to be early and late in the winter, with the potential for a very mild spell during the heart of winter.”
In November, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:
Scandinavia – Warmer than normal Norway/Sweden, cool Finland
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal, except for eastern sections
Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except for eastern sections
In December, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Scandinavia – Warmer than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for western sections
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for western sections
In January, WSI forecasts:
Scandinavia – Colder than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal
WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook for the December-February period on 22 November.
About Weather Services International
Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
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