WSI Energycast 2008 Tropical Forecast Calls for Active Atlantic Season
WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders
Andover, MA, April 23, 2008 - WSI Corporation issued a regularly-scheduled update to their 2008 Atlantic tropical season forecast on April 15. The 2008 forecast now calls for 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). These forecast numbers are up slightly from the December 18 forecast, which called for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The forecast numbers are significantly higher than the 1950-2007 averages of 9.7 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes. The expectations for an active 2008 season arise from (1) the expected continuation of warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies into next summer and fall and (2) the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment on the heels of the current La Nina event.
The 2008 WSI forecast comes on the heels of a very successful 2007 forecast. The May 15 preseason forecast values of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes were slightly larger than the final observed values of 15/6/2, but the forecast fared better than the other well-publicized tropical forecasts. The August 14 update reduced the forecast numbers to 14/6/3, a correct prediction of a reduced risk of hurricanes relative to the May forecast.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “Since 1995, most tropical seasons have been more active than the long-term averages, due to warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures. We do not see any reason why this active regime will not continue in 2008. The current La Nina event, which is decaying somewhat this spring, should leave behind a wind shear environment that is favorable for the development of tropical systems in the summer and fall of 2008. We have increased our forecast slightly based on continued Atlantic warming in recent months, along with the persistence, albeit a bit weaker, of the La Nina event.”
WSI has been providing industry-leading seasonal forecasts for energy traders since 2000. The next full seasonal forecast package, which will include forecasts for late winter temperatures in both the US and Europe, will be issued to clients on May 20 and to the press on May 27. The next update on the 2008 tropical season will be issued to clients on May 20 and to the press on May 28.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions
for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal
and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark
Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
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