WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Cooler July in Northeast, but Warmer Again August and September; Biggest Summer Heat to Settle in West
WSI and ESAI issue an update of special interest to energy traders
Andover, MA, July 01, 2008 - WSI Corporation issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (July-September) on June 24. WSI expects the upcoming three-month period to average cooler than normal in the Southeast and in the major population centers along the Pacific Coast, with warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere, especially in the northern Rockies and northern Plains. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
The monthly breakdown follows:
In July:
- Northeast - Cooler than normal
- Southeast - Cooler than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal
- Northwest - Warmer than normal, except coastal locations
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except coastal locations
Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI)
The WSI July forecast indicates slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures
for the Eastern regions and Pacific coastal cities. Warmer-than-normal
temperatures are expected in the Central regions, particularly in the
Rockies. Gas injections to storage in July may be slightly above-normal
due to cooler temperatures in the Eastern and California major load centers,
offsetting higher demand in the Central regions. Heat impacts on power
prices are likely to be moderate in the Northeast and California markets
with a lower probability of heat events during July in these areas. However,
high fuel prices will keep power prices inflated in most regions.
In August:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Cooler than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal, except east TX
- Northwest - Warmer than normal, except coastal locations
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except coastal locations
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI August forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout
most of the U.S. with cooler temperatures in the Southeast and California.
Injections to gas storage are likely to be below-normal during August,
providing a bullish factor in natural gas pricing. Power prices in the
Northeast markets will be firm with slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures
and a slightly higher probability of heat events. With normal-to-cooler
temperatures expected in California and Texas, power prices should remain
moderate in relation to prevailing natural gas prices.
In September:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Cooler than normal
- N Central - Cooler than normal
- S Central - Cooler than normal, except TX
- Northwest - Cooler than normal
- Southwest - Cooler than normal
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI September forecast indicates slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures
in the Northeast with cooler temperatures prevalent throughout most of
the rest of the country. Injections to gas storage are likely to be higher-than-normal
due to the lower probability of late season heat. Cooler temperatures
in September should moderate power prices except in the Northeast where
warmer temperature expectations would be moderately bullish for power
prices.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “The expected transition from big heat in the East to more seasonal temperatures is currently occurring and should persist through much of July. The most intense heat will plague the western US for much of the rest of the summer. By August, however, we do feel that some heat will return to the Northeast, although we do not expect intense or persistent heat all month. A transition to cooler and wetter conditions will occur in the Southeast as the most anomalous heat lifts northward and westward.”
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its seasonal outlook twice-monthly. The next new forecast package (for August-October) issued on July 16.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions
for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal
and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark
Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
About ESAI Corporation
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated
to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy
markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients
with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil,
natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services visit
www.esai.com
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