Weather Authority Also Sees Increased Chances for US Landfall
Andover, MA, December 22, 2010 — In its first tropical forecast for 2011, WSI (Weather Services International) is predicting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). The 2011 forecast numbers are well above the long-term (1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes and also slightly above the averages from the more active recent period (1995-2010) of 15/8/4.
“We expect another very active season in 2011, with above-normal Atlantic ocean temperatures and favorable wind shear conditions. Typically, years after La Nina events are quite active, especially if the La Nina doesn’t rapidly transition to an El Nino event,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “Most of the statistical and dynamical guidance suggests that the chance of this occurring is relatively low.”
Crawford also indicated that the Gulf Coast was under a significant threat for hurricane landfall in the upcoming season. “Our hurricane landfall prediction model suggests increased chances of US landfall in 2011, with particularly enhanced probabilities in the western Gulf states. The forecast numbers are quite similar to those prior to the 2008 season, when Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, and Ike impacted Louisiana and Texas.”
Energy traders, insurance professionals and risk managers look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock and across the globe. The next seasonal forecast update, which will include forecasts for late winter and early spring temperatures, will be issued on January 25. The next update for the 2011 tropical season will be released on April 27.
WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, insurance, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.
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